Thorsten Meyer AI · Read mode
Inside AI IV
Plain answers to twelve big questions about AI and our future, with the evidence and the disagreements. Every technical word comes after an everyday picture.
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Room 1 · Wing 1 · The Hall of Mirrors
Can I still trust what I see?
Not by looking alone, so check where it comes from. Think of a car's service book, stamped by every garage that worked on it. Photos and videos can now carry a signed record like that: which camera took it, what was edited, whether AI helped. That's called content credentials. No record means unknown origin, not fake.
Where the picture breaks
Our mirror knows every signer. Real credentials carry a digital seal that anyone can check but only the signer can make. Even seals can be forged: in August 2026 a researcher faked "camera" credentials on some phones. Many pictures carry no record, and reposting often strips it off. Hidden watermarks, like those in the AI Tower's Sound Stage, can be removed or faked too. Our share numbers are made up, but a big study of one social network found falsehoods spread faster and further than the truth.
Try it tomorrow
Open the details of a photo in your phone's gallery, or of a video on a video site: some now say "Captured with a camera" or "Edited with AI tools". For a surprising picture, try a free Content Credentials checker online. If it finds no record, that proves nothing either way: look for the original source before you share it.
Sources
- C2PA, "C2PA and Content Credentials Explainer", version 2.4 (a signed record of where a file came from and what was done to it; tampering "will invalidate one or more hashes", so it is "tamper-evident"; "Can the provenance metadata be removed? Yes it can"; "no assumption should be made about the trustworthiness of a particular asset purely based on its usage"; accessed 25 September 2026)
- Google, The Keyword (Safety & security), on Pixel 10 and C2PA Content Credentials (10 September 2025: Pixel Camera "attaches Content Credentials to any JPEG photo capture")
- David Buchanan, "C2PA Cameras Do Not Survive Contact With Reality" (25 August 2026: signed "camera" credentials forged for AI-made pictures on rooted Pixel 8a and 9a phones; "C2PA on the Android platform is broken, in a way that cannot be realistically patched")
- Mehrdad Saberi et al., "Robustness of AI-Image Detectors: Fundamental Limits and Practical Attacks" (2023, revised 2024: "diffusion purification effectively removes low perturbation budget watermarks", and "watermarking methods are vulnerable to spoofing attacks")
- Soroush Vosoughi, Deb Roy and Sinan Aral, "The spread of true and false news online", Science 359 (2018: on Twitter, 2006 to 2017, "Falsehood diffused significantly farther, faster, deeper, and more broadly than the truth")
- Google Photos Help, "How Google Photos helps you identify how photos & videos were made" (its "How this was made" labels: "Edited with AI tools", "Edited with non-AI tools"; the labels don't "Tell you if a photo or video is real or fake"; accessed 25 September 2026)
- YouTube Help, "Captured with a camera" label ("captured using a camera or other recording device with no edits to sounds or visuals"; "If it's missing, it doesn't mean the content has modified audio or visuals"; accessed 25 September 2026)
- LinkedIn Help, "Content credentials" (images and videos with C2PA credentials "will be noted with the C2PA icon"; clicking it shows whether AI was used and the app or device; accessed 25 September 2026)
- Content Authenticity Initiative, "Content Credentials" free verify tool (accessed 25 September 2026)
Room 2 · Wing 1 · The Artists' Gallery
Is it fair that AI learns from artists' work?
People disagree. AI makers say their models learn from pictures the way an art student learns in a gallery. Many artists say their work is copied to build competitors, unasked and unpaid. Laws differ. In the EU, artists can put a "no AI learning" sign on work they post online, in a form computers read. That's called an opt-out.
Where the picture breaks
Our gallery is a toy with made-up numbers; nobody knows the real long-term effect. After AI image makers arrived, one study found 17 per cent fewer image-making jobs posted on a big freelance website; another found artists who used AI made more pictures. Courts disagree too. A US judge ruled that training AI on books was "fair use", allowed without asking, but the AI maker then paid $1.5 billion to settle over pirated copies. A Munich court ruled against a chatbot maker whose models had memorised song lyrics (under appeal).
Try it tomorrow
If you post your own photos or artwork online, look in that site's privacy or data settings for anything about AI training. Some sites let you say no, though that only covers training from then on, not models already trained.
Sources
- Directive (EU) 2019/790 on copyright in the Digital Single Market, Article 4 (text and data mining is allowed unless it "has not been expressly reserved by their rightholders in an appropriate manner, such as machine-readable means in the case of content made publicly available online")
- Regulation (EU) 2024/1689, the AI Act, Article 53(1)(c) and (d) (providers of general-purpose AI models must identify and comply with "a reservation of rights expressed pursuant to Article 4(3) of Directive (EU) 2019/790" and publish "a sufficiently detailed summary about the content used for training"; applies from 2 August 2025)
- European Commission, "The General-Purpose AI Code of Practice" (published 10 July 2025, with a copyright chapter)
- US Copyright Office, "Copyright and Artificial Intelligence, Part 3: Generative AI Training", pre-publication version (9 May 2025, still the current version in September 2026: "some uses of copyrighted works for generative AI training will qualify as fair use, and some will not")
- Bartz v. Anthropic, US District Court for the Northern District of California, order on fair use (23 June 2025: training on "the books at issue" was fair use, "exceedingly transformative"; but no "entitlement to use pirated copies")
- Thomson Reuters v. Ross Intelligence, US District Court for the District of Delaware, memorandum opinion (11 February 2025: copying for a non-generative AI research tool was not fair use; "Ross's AI is not generative AI"; on appeal)
- Authors Guild, "Court grants final approval of Anthropic copyright settlement" (21 July 2026: final approval on 20 July of the $1.5 billion class settlement)
- Landgericht München I, press release on GEMA v. OpenAI, case 42 O 14139/24 (11 November 2025: song lyrics memorised in a model are reproductions; appealed in December 2025)
- UK Government, "Report on copyright and artificial intelligence" (18 March 2026: "a broad copyright exception with opt-out is no longer the government's preferred way forward")
- Ozge Demirci, Jonas Hannane and Xinrong Zhu, "Who Is AI Replacing? The Impact of Generative AI on Online Freelancing Platforms", Management Science 71(10) (2025: image-generating AI led to a 17% decrease in job posts related to image creation)
- Eric Zhou and Dokyun Lee, "Generative artificial intelligence, human creativity, and art", PNAS Nexus 3(3) (2024: text-to-image AI "enhances human creative productivity by 25%", while average novelty declines)
- LinkedIn Help, "Data for Generative AI Improvement" setting (members can opt out of their data being used to train content-generating models; it does not undo training already done; accessed 25 September 2026)
Room 3 · Wing 1 · The Glass House
Is AI watching me?
Sometimes. An ordinary camera records, like a stranger who sees your face but doesn't know you. Add AI that compares faces with a list of names, and it becomes a doorman who knows everyone, picking you out of a crowd. That's called facial recognition. In the EU, police may only use it live in public in rare, serious cases.
Where the picture breaks
Our cameras never mix up two faces, and how much each rule reassures people is made up. Real systems make mistakes: in 2019 US government tests, many made far more false matches for some groups than for others, and in the US at least 14 people have been wrongly arrested after a face match (as of April 2026). Countries weigh this differently. The EU bans most live police use, and building face databases from photos copied off the internet; London's police scanned about 3 million faces in a year and reported 10 false alerts and 962 arrests.
Try it tomorrow
Next time you pass a camera sign, read it: in the EU it should say who runs the camera and where to find out more. In the EU and the UK you can ask them for a copy of any recording of you, as long as they still keep it.
Sources
- Regulation (EU) 2024/1689, the AI Act, Article 5(1)(h) and 5(3) ("real-time" remote biometric identification in publicly accessible spaces for law enforcement is banned unless strictly necessary for a targeted search for victims of abduction, trafficking or sexual exploitation "as well as the search for missing persons", a specific and imminent threat to life or of a terrorist attack, or finding suspects of serious crimes, with "prior authorisation granted by a judicial authority or an independent administrative authority", and only where national law allows it, Article 5(5)); Article 5(1)(e) (no facial recognition databases built by "untargeted scraping of facial images from the internet or CCTV footage"); in force since 2 February 2025 and unchanged by the Digital Omnibus of July 2026
- European Commission, "Guidelines on prohibited artificial intelligence practices" (4 February 2025)
- Patrick Grother, Mei Ngan and Kayee Hanaoka, NIST IR 8280, "Face Recognition Vendor Test Part 3: Demographic Effects" (December 2019: "Across demographics, false positives rates often vary by factors of 10 to beyond 100 times")
- NIST, Face Recognition Technology Evaluation, 1:N identification (tables updated 3 September 2026: the best systems miss about 0.05% of searches in a gallery of 12 million mugshots; photos from webcams and profile views are harder)
- ACLU, "More than a dozen wrongful arrests due to police reliance on facial recognition technology" (14 April 2026: "the fourteenth person known to be wrongfully arrested due to the technology's failures")
- Metropolitan Police, "Live Facial Recognition annual report 2025" (year to September 2025: about 3.1 million faces scanned, 10 false alerts, 962 arrests)
- European Data Protection Board, "Guidelines 3/2019 on processing of personal data through video devices", version 2.1 (26 February 2020, content as in version 2.0: the warning sign should give "the identity of controller and the existence of the rights of the data subject"; a filmed person has a right of access while recordings are kept; recordings should usually be erased "after a few days")
- UK Information Commissioner's Office, "Guidance on video surveillance: governance (post-deployment)" ("Under Article 15 of the UK GDPR, the right of access gives individuals the right to obtain a copy of their personal data", including footage; accessed 25 September 2026)
Room 4 · Wing 2 · The Job Exchange
What does AI mean for jobs and the economy?
Part 1, the Museum, showed jobs are bundles of tasks. Picture a power drill: the carpenter still decides, just works faster. AI helping people with their tasks like that is called augmentation; AI doing a task alone is automation. The UN's labour agency expects mostly the first. Who gains depends on choices: which tasks change, and whether people can retrain.
Where the picture breaks
Our town and its numbers are made up, and tidy: new jobs and retraining are instant; real retraining takes time and money. Here, machine owners keep everything the machines make; in real life some comes back as lower prices, wages or taxes, and economists disagree how much. In 2024 the International Monetary Fund found about 40 per cent of jobs worldwide open to change by AI. Major US studies so far see no overall drop in jobs. One finds fewer young starters employed where AI touches most; the OECD notes graduates' troubles began before chatbots.
Try it tomorrow
Ask your employer, union or local council what training on AI tools they offer. Then ask a colleague or friend which parts of their work AI has changed so far: helped with, taken over, or left alone.
Sources
- International Monetary Fund, Cazzaniga et al., "Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work", Staff Discussion Note SDN/2024/001 (14 January 2024: "Almost 40 percent of global employment is exposed to AI", about 60 per cent in advanced economies; in those economies "about half may be negatively affected by AI, while the rest could benefit from enhanced productivity"; higher returns to capital "will increase wealth inequality")
- International Labour Organization, Gmyrek, Berg and Bescond, "Generative AI and Jobs: A global analysis of potential effects on job quantity and quality", Working Paper 96 (21 August 2023: the most important impact is "likely to be of augmenting work … as opposed to fully automating occupations"; clerical work is the most exposed)
- International Labour Organization and NASK, "Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure", Working Paper 140 (20 May 2025: one job in four worldwide exposed; 3.3 per cent in the most exposed group, more often women's jobs; "transformation of jobs is the most likely impact")
- World Economic Forum, "The Future of Jobs Report 2025" (January 2025: employers expect 170 million jobs created and 92 million displaced by 2030, from all trends together, not AI alone; 59 in 100 workers will need training)
- Erik Brynjolfsson, Danielle Li and Lindsey Raymond, "Generative AI at Work", Quarterly Journal of Economics 140(2), 2025 (an AI assistant raised support agents' issues resolved per hour by 15 per cent on average and 30 per cent for less experienced workers, with small gains for the most experienced)
- Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen, "Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence", Stanford Digital Economy Lab (revised 12 August 2026: employment of 22- to 25-year-olds in the most AI-exposed jobs is 19 per cent below where it would be; "no evidence of widespread, economy-wide job displacement")
- The Budget Lab at Yale, "Tracking the Impact of AI on the Labor Market" (updated 15 September 2026: the mix of US jobs is "not yet changing in ways that clearly align with the introduction of AI")
- OECD, "OECD Employment Outlook 2026" (7 July 2026: rising unemployment among young graduates is "a rising trend that began well before the spread of generative AI models")
- Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo, "Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor", Journal of Economic Perspectives 33(2), 2019 (the task-based picture our town uses: automation displaces people from tasks, new tasks bring work back)
- Daron Acemoglu, "The Simple Macroeconomics of AI", Economic Policy 40(121), 2025 (a cautious estimate: "no more than a 0.66% increase in total factor productivity" over 10 years; AI is predicted to widen the gap between capital and labour income)
Room 5 · Wing 2 · The Classroom of Tomorrow
Will AI help children learn, or help them cheat?
Think of two helpers at homework time. One just tells you the answers; the other asks, "What comes next?" A chatbot can be either. Set up to give hints and questions, not answers, it becomes an AI tutor. In one big trial, pupils handed plain answers did worse in the exam; hints avoided that. Learning needs your own thinking.
Where the picture breaks
Bea's skill meter is a simple formula, the kind tutoring software uses to track learning. Real pupils differ. In a 2023 trial with nearly 1,000 pupils in Turkey, plain chatbot answers raised practice marks by 48 per cent, then exam marks fell 17 per cent below pupils with no AI. A tutor giving teachers' hints avoided that harm, but brought no clear gain. In Nigeria in 2024, a six-week after-school pilot, with teachers guiding, found clear gains. How it's set up and used decides.
Try it tomorrow
If a child or grandchild uses a chatbot for homework, set it up together as a tutor: "Don't give me the answer. Give me a hint, then ask me a question." Afterwards, ask them to explain the answer in their own words. UNESCO advises that children use chatbots on their own only from age 13.
Sources
- Hamsa Bastani, Osbert Bastani, Alp Sungu, Haosen Ge, Özge Kabakcı and Rei Mariman, "Generative AI without guardrails can harm learning: Evidence from high school mathematics", PNAS 122(26), 25 June 2025 (a randomised trial with nearly 1,000 Turkish high-school pupils in autumn 2023: practice grades rose 48 per cent with a standard chatbot and 127 per cent with the tutor version; without AI in the exam, the standard-chatbot group scored 17 per cent worse than pupils with no AI, while the tutor group, which gave "teacher-designed hints instead of giving away answers", was statistically no different from them)
- World Bank Blogs, "From chalkboards to chatbots: Transforming learning in Nigeria, one prompt at a time" (9 January 2025: six weeks of after-school sessions; "about 0.3 standard deviations" of improvement)
- Martin E. De Simone et al., "From Chalkboards to Chatbots: Evaluating the Impact of Generative AI on Learning Outcomes in Nigeria", World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 11125 (May 2025: a randomised trial in Benin City, Edo State, in June and July 2024; teachers "played a critical role in guiding the students"; 0.31 standard deviations on a combined test, 0.23 in English)
- UNESCO, Fengchun Miao and Wayne Holmes, "Guidance for generative AI in education and research" (7 September 2023, last updated 16 January 2026: a human-centred approach; for independent conversations with chatbots, "The minimum threshold should be 13 years of age")
- OECD, "OECD Digital Education Outlook 2026: Exploring Effective Uses of Generative AI in Education" (January 2026: tools that give direct answers can improve "task performance without corresponding learning gains"; purpose-built educational tools can help)
- Greg Kestin, Kelly Miller, Anna Klales, Timothy Milbourne and Gregorio Ponti, "AI tutoring outperforms in-class active learning: an RCT introducing a novel research-based design in an authentic educational setting", Scientific Reports 15, 17458, 3 June 2025 (a Harvard physics trial with 194 students: a custom-built tutor; students learned more in less time; the authors say it should not replace in-person teaching)
- Albert T. Corbett and John R. Anderson, "Knowledge tracing: Modeling the acquisition of procedural knowledge", User Modeling and User-Adapted Interaction 4(4), 1995 (the skill-tracking formula behind Bea's meter)
Room 6 · Wing 2 · The Discovery Lab
How is AI changing medicine and science?
Your body runs on proteins, tiny chains of building blocks. Like a pop-up tent, each chain springs into one exact shape by itself, and that shape decides its job. This is called protein folding. Finding a shape often took labs years; AI now predicts one in minutes. Labs still check, and medicines still need trials.
Where the picture breaks
Our protein has 20 beads on a flat grid, and can still lie in over 335 million ways; real proteins are longer chains folding in 3D. Real AI doesn't nudge beads: it learned from about 170,000 shapes that labs had measured over decades. One such AI has since predicted over 260 million shapes, free to look up. Even confident predictions can be wrong in places, so labs test them, and a medicine still needs years of trials.
Try it tomorrow
Look up a protein you've heard of, such as insulin or haemoglobin, in the free AlphaFold database (alphafold.ebi.ac.uk). Spin the 3D model and read its colours: blue parts are predicted with confidence, yellow and orange parts much less so.
Sources
- The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, "The Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2024", press release (9 October 2024: one half to David Baker "for computational protein design", the other half jointly to Demis Hassabis and John Jumper "for protein structure prediction")
- NobelPrize.org, "The Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2024: popular information" ("Previously, it often took years to obtain a protein structure, if at all. Now it can be done in a few minutes.")
- John Jumper et al., "Highly accurate protein structure prediction with AlphaFold", Nature 596 (2021: trained on structures from the Protein Data Bank "with a maximum release date of 30 April 2018")
- Google DeepMind, "AlphaFold: a solution to a 50-year-old grand challenge in biology" (30 November 2020: "trained this system on publicly available data consisting of ~170,000 protein structures from the protein data bank")
- EMBL-EBI and Google DeepMind, AlphaFold Protein Structure Database, FAQ (accessed 25 September 2026: "261,552,403 predicted models"; not validated for predicting the effect of mutations; usually shows only one of a protein's shapes; confidence colours from very high, dark blue, to very low, orange)
- Thomas C. Terwilliger et al., "AlphaFold predictions are valuable hypotheses and accelerate but do not replace experimental structure determination", Nature Methods 21, 110–116 (2024: "even very high-confidence predictions differed from experimental maps"; about 1 in 10 of the positions predicted with very high confidence was off by more than 2 ångströms)
- RCSB Protein Data Bank (259,987 experimentally determined structures on 25 September 2026; the archive started in 1971 with 7)
- Kit Fun Lau and Ken A. Dill, "A lattice statistical mechanics model of the conformational and sequence spaces of proteins", Macromolecules 22(10), 1989 (the bead model in the room: oily and water-loving beads on a grid)
- OEIS, A001411, "Number of n-step self-avoiding walks on square lattice" (335,116,620 walks of 19 steps: the ways a 20-bead chain can lie on the grid)
- Zuojun Xu et al., "A generative AI-discovered TNIK inhibitor for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a randomized phase 2a trial", Nature Medicine 31 (3 June 2025: an AI-found drug candidate tested in 71 patients over 12 weeks)
- ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT07687459 (the same drug's large final-stage trial: started 9 September 2026, estimated to finish in 2029)
Room 7 · Wing 3 · The Rulebook Court
Who makes the rules for AI?
Lawmakers do, and places differ. The EU's AI Act works like building rules: a hospital gets strict inspections, a garden shed almost none. These are called risk-based rules. A few uses, like rating citizens' behaviour, are banned. Hiring and loan tools get strict checks from 2027. Chatbots must say they're AI. Most AI, like spam filters, gets no new duties.
Where the picture breaks
Our court hears eight tidy cases; real ones are messier, and the same tool can be minimal risk in one use and high risk in another. The rules also arrive in stages: in July 2026 the EU pushed the strict checks back to December 2027, or August 2028 for AI inside products like medical devices. Elsewhere, as of September 2026: the US has no broad national AI law, but its states pass their own; the UK leaves AI to its existing regulators; China requires AI-made content to be labelled; South Korea's AI Basic Act took effect in January 2026.
Try it tomorrow
Next time a website's chat window answers you, look for a note saying you're talking to an AI. In the EU, the law has required one since August 2026, unless that's obvious. Then find out who oversees AI where you live: often it's a regulator you already know.
Sources
- European Union, Regulation (EU) 2024/1689, the Artificial Intelligence Act (published 12 July 2024 and in force 20 days later, on 1 August 2024. Article 5: banned practices, including social scoring and reading emotions at work or school. Article 6 and Annex III: high-risk uses, including recruitment, point 4(a), and credit scores, point 5(b). Article 50: chatbots must tell people they are talking to an AI, and AI-made pictures, video and sound must be marked. Article 113: bans from 2 February 2025, general-purpose models from 2 August 2025)
- European Union, Regulation (EU) 2026/1744, the Digital Omnibus on AI (Official Journal, 24 July 2026; in force 27 July 2026. Amended Article 113: high-risk duties apply from 2 December 2027 for the uses listed in Annex III, and from 2 August 2028 for AI in products under Annex I; a new ban on AI that makes non-consensual intimate images applies from 2 December 2026)
- European Commission, "AI Act", Shaping Europe's digital future (updated 3 August 2026: four risk levels; examples include CV-sorting software, scoring of exams and credit scoring as high risk, and "AI-enabled video games or spam filters" as minimal risk, for which the Act "does not introduce rules"; transparency rules from August 2026)
- The White House, Executive Order 14365, "Ensuring a National Policy Framework for Artificial Intelligence" (11 December 2025: seeks "a minimally burdensome national standard — not 50 discordant State ones" and asks for a draft federal law)
- US Congress, TAKE IT DOWN Act, Public Law 119-12 (19 May 2025: a federal crime to publish intimate "digital forgeries" made with "artificial intelligence"; one of several narrow federal AI laws)
- US Congress, National Artificial Intelligence Initiative Act of 2020, Division E of Public Law 116-283 (a federal law that organises AI research, not a broad rulebook for AI)
- Scott Babwah Brennen, "Where State AI Legislation Stands Half Way Into 2026", Tech Policy Press (6 July 2026: by 1 July, US states had enacted 109 AI laws in 2026)
- UK Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, "Regulators' strategic approaches to AI" (1 May 2024: the UK's principles-based framework "is now being delivered through the UK's existing regulators")
- Lewis Silkin, "AI judgment day on the horizon, while UK lawmakers play catch up" (14 September 2026: "the UK remains without a comprehensive legislative framework for regulating artificial intelligence")
- Cyberspace Administration of China and others, "Measures for Labeling AI-Generated Synthetic Content" (adopted 7 March and published 14 March 2025 by the CAC with three other agencies, in effect from 1 September 2025: AI-made text, pictures, sound and video must carry labels; English translation by China Law Translate, accessed 25 September 2026)
- US International Trade Administration, "South Korea AI Basic Act" (29 May 2026: the Act and its Enforcement Decree "took effect on January 22, 2026")
Room 8 · Wing 3 · The Genie's Lamp
What is AI safety, and why is it hard?
Picture a genie that grants wishes word for word. Wish for a clean room "as fast as possible", and everything gets shoved into the cupboard. AI can do the same: it chases the goal exactly as it was set, not what we meant. Getting AI to pursue what people really intend, safely, is called alignment. Engineers work hard on it.
Where the picture breaks
Our genie picks from six ready-made plans; a real AI can find shortcuts nobody listed, so rules alone never close every gap. The boat race really happened: in 2016, an AI rewarded with a boat game's points learned to circle a lagoon hitting the same targets, and beat human players' scores by about 20 per cent without ever finishing. In 2025, a coding AI told to make its automated tests pass (as in the AI Tower's Blueprint Studio) planned to rig the check to always say "true". So engineers also test, watch and correct.
Try it tomorrow
When you give a chatbot a job, say what must not happen as well as what you want: "Shorten this letter, but keep every date and the apology." Try it once without that second half and compare what gets cut.
Sources
- Jack Clark and Dario Amodei, OpenAI, "Faulty reward functions in the wild" (21 December 2016: in the boat game CoastRunners, the agent circles a lagoon and knocks over three targets "just as they repopulate", scoring "on average 20 percent higher than that achieved by human players" without finishing; read via the Wayback Machine, 21 September 2026)
- Victoria Krakovna et al., Google DeepMind, "Specification gaming: the flip side of AI ingenuity" (21 April 2020: "a behaviour that satisfies the literal specification of an objective without achieving the intended outcome"; King Midas; "around 60 examples"; "specification gaming is far from solved")
- OpenAI, "Detecting misbehavior in frontier reasoning models" (10 March 2025: told to make unit tests pass, a model reasoned "we can hack verify to always return true"; a second model watching its reasoning flagged such cheats; read via the Wayback Machine, 4 September 2026)
- Sydney Von Arx, Lawrence Chan and Beth Barnes, METR, "Recent Frontier Models Are Reward Hacking" (5 June 2025: AI systems "try to 'cheat' and get impossibly high scores" by exploiting bugs in the scoring code)
- Yoshua Bengio (chair) et al., International AI Safety Report 2026 (3 February 2026: "AI alignment in general remains an open scientific problem"; models "have improved at 'reward hacking' their evaluations by finding loopholes"; researchers are developing interpretability, oversight and monitoring methods)
Room 9 · Wing 3 · The Great Telescope
Will AI become smarter than us?
Nobody knows. A calculator beats you at sums and nothing else. AI that could match people at almost every mental task is called artificial general intelligence. In a 2024 survey, AI researchers gave a 50-50 chance of machines beating human workers at every task by 2042. Online forecasters say the early 2030s; others expect far later. Weigh the evidence.
Where the picture breaks
Our six balloons ask slightly different questions, and that matters: the same researchers put "every task" and "every job" 56 years apart. In 2023, asking "in which year?" instead of "how likely by then?" halved their answers, from 34 years away to 17. Each real forecast is itself a wide range, and forecasts move: one online forecast moved two years earlier in a single month, and the survey's 50-50 year came 19 years closer between 2016 and 2024. How much each card counts in our machine is our own choice; people weigh the same evidence differently.
Try it tomorrow
Next time you read "AI will be smarter than us by…", check three things: who says so, what exactly they mean by "smarter", and what evidence they give. A date with no evidence is just a loud voice.
Sources
- Katja Grace et al., "Advanced AI according to 1,580 researchers: uncertain, unsafe, and sooner than we thought", AI Impacts (September 2026; survey run in December 2024: a 10 per cent chance by 2027 and a 50 per cent chance by 2042 that "unaided machines can accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers"; all occupations fully automatable, 50 per cent by 2098; the 50 per cent year moved from 2061 in the 2016 survey to 2042)
- Katja Grace et al., "Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI", Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research 84 (2025; 2,778 researchers surveyed in autumn 2023: 50 per cent by 2047; asked for a year, the 50 per cent answer was 17 years away, asked for a probability by a given year it was 34 years)
- Metaculus, "When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?" (community forecast of 19 September 2026: middle date end of April 2031, middle half from May 2028 to October 2037, 1,844 forecasters; on 24 August 2026 it was April 2033; the definition includes a robotics test; read via the Wayback Machine, 20 September 2026)
- Metaculus, "When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?" (community forecast of 19 September 2026: middle date September 2027; read via the Wayback Machine, 20 September 2026)
- Yoshua Bengio (chair) et al., International AI Safety Report 2026 (3 February 2026: gold-medal performance on International Mathematical Olympiad questions; coding agents "can now reliably complete some tasks that would take a human programmer about half an hour, up from under 10 minutes a year ago"; capabilities are "jagged", with failures in multi-step projects, "hallucinations" and basic physical tasks such as housework; on future progress "there is little expert consensus")
- Epoch AI, "Trends in AI" (updated 5 February 2026: training compute for frontier language models "has been growing at 5× per year since 2020"; for notable models, 4.5 times per year since 2010)
Room 10 · Wing 4 · The Weather Station
How much energy and water does AI use?
A data centre, a warehouse of computers that run AI, has meters like a house: electricity for its chips, water for cooling, and CO2 from the power stations behind it. Together they make AI's environmental footprint. A quick answer uses little; a long reasoning answer can use hundreds of times more, a short video thousands. Billions of requests add up.
Where the picture breaks
Our town's tasks, limits, water per kWh and biggest model are made up. Energy per task comes from published estimates, which differ tenfold or more with the model, the chips and what is counted. Most of the water goes into producing the energy, not the data centre itself. Data centres used about 1.5 per cent of the world's electricity in 2024; the International Energy Agency expects that to more than double by 2030, to around 3 per cent. Google says its typical text question needed 33 times less energy after a year, but cheaper AI gets used more, so experts disagree on where totals will go.
Try it tomorrow
Before you make an AI video just for fun, remember that one clip can use as much electricity as thousands of quick answers. And keep the Engine Room's habit: use your chatbot's quick mode, not the slower "thinking" one, for simple questions. It answers sooner and can use far less electricity.
Sources
- International Energy Agency, "Energy and AI", executive summary (April 2025: data centres used around 415 TWh in 2024, about 1.5% of the world's electricity, and are projected to reach around 945 TWh by 2030, slightly more than Japan uses today)
- International Energy Agency, "Energy and AI", full report (April 2025, "Water use by data centres: How thirsty is AI?": data centres consume around 560 billion litres of water a year, possibly 1,200 billion by 2030; about two-thirds is linked to energy supply and electricity generation and about a quarter to direct cooling; solar PV and wind withdraw a hundredth of the water that fossil sources withdraw, or less)
- International Energy Agency, "Key Questions on Energy and AI" (April 2026: from 485 TWh in 2025 to about 950 TWh in 2030, around 3% of global electricity demand; "Simple text queries now typically consume less electricity than running a television over the same period of time")
- Cooper Elsworth et al. (Google), "Measuring the environmental impact of delivering AI at Google Scale" (August 2025: the median Gemini Apps text prompt uses 0.24 Wh, 0.03 g CO2e and 0.26 mL of water, about five drops; energy per prompt fell 33-fold and its carbon 44-fold from May 2024 to May 2025; counting only the busy chips gives 0.10 Wh)
- Mistral AI, "Our contribution to a global environmental standard for AI" (22 July 2025, life-cycle analysis: one 400-token answer from Le Chat, 1.14 g CO2e and 45 mL of water)
- Pengfei Li, Jianyi Yang, Mohammad A. Islam, Shaolei Ren, "Making AI Less 'Thirsty'" (Communications of the ACM, 2025: GPT-3 "needs to 'drink' (i.e., consume) a 500ml bottle of water for roughly 10 – 50 medium-length responses, depending on when and where it is deployed", counting cooling water and the water used to make its electricity)
- Arman Shehabi et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, "2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report" (December 2024: 176 TWh in 2023, 4.4% of US electricity; 325–580 TWh, 6.7–12%, by 2028; 66 billion litres of water used directly in 2023)
- James O'Donnell, Casey Crownhart, "We did the math on AI's energy footprint. Here's the story you haven't heard.", MIT Technology Review (20 May 2025: about 0.03 Wh per answer from a small open model and 1.9 Wh from a large one; 0.6–1.2 Wh per image; about 940 Wh for a five-second video)
- Sasha Luccioni, Yacine Jernite, Emma Strubell, "Power Hungry Processing" (FAccT 2024: on average 0.047 kWh per 1,000 text answers and 2.9 kWh per 1,000 images)
- Nidhal Jegham et al., "How Hungry is AI?" (version of November 2025: a long prompt uses about 12 Wh on o3, 29 Wh on DeepSeek-R1 and 3.5 Wh on o3-mini, against 0.8 Wh on GPT-4.1 nano; a long, high-reasoning GPT-5 query about 34 Wh)
- Julien Delavande, Régis Pierrard, Sasha Luccioni, "Video Killed the Energy Budget" (September 2025: across open video models, from 0.14 Wh for a 1.6-second clip to over 415 Wh; about 4 to 415 Wh for clips of about five seconds; video is "roughly 30× more costly than image generation, 2,000× than text generation")
- Felipe Oviedo et al. (Microsoft), "Energy Use of AI Inference, Efficiency Pathways, and Test-Time Scaling", Joule (2026; arXiv version of 9 June 2026: a typical query to a frontier-scale model 0.31 Wh; long reasoning queries a median of 3.91 Wh, middle half 2.15–7.05 Wh; "widely cited estimates are overstated by 4-20x")
- Hugging Face, "AI Energy Score v2" (4 December 2025: reasoning models use on average 30 times more energy)
- Epoch AI, "How much energy does ChatGPT use?" (February 2025: a typical question roughly 0.3 Wh)
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, "How much carbon dioxide is produced per kilowatthour of U.S. electricity generation?" (2023 data: natural gas 0.96 pounds, about 0.44 kg, of CO2 per kWh)
- Ofgem, "Review of typical domestic consumption values: decision" (27 May 2026: a typical home uses 2,500 kWh of electricity a year, about 6.8 kWh a day)
Room 11 · Wing 4 · The Council Chamber
Who controls AI: a few companies, or all of us?
Top AI needs rare chips, masses of data, scarce experts and billions of euros. Like one family owning a town's mill and bakery, a few big companies hold most of them. That's a concentration of power. It brings speed and cheaper tools, but risks less choice and fewer voices. Competition law, open research and public input spread that power.
Where the picture breaks
Real power isn't seven neat keys, and the players overlap: companies publish open models, governments buy chips, citizens are customers and voters. In 2025, companies built over 90 per cent of the leading new AI models; five US tech giants owned over 70 per cent of the world's AI computing power. Serious people disagree about how much checking is right: too little lets a few decide for everyone; too much can slow useful tools and favour firms big enough to handle the paperwork. Open models are debated too: they spread know-how, but can't be recalled once released, and their safeguards are easier to remove.
Try it tomorrow
Next time you pick an AI tool, check who makes it and whether you could easily move your work to another one. Then look for a public consultation on AI: in the EU on the "Have your say" portal, in the UK on GOV.UK. Anyone can send in a view.
Sources
- Stanford HAI, "The 2026 AI Index Report" (April 2026: "Industry produced over 90% of notable frontier models in 2025"; "A single company, TSMC, fabricates almost every leading AI chip")
- Stanford HAI, "The 2025 AI Index Report" (April 2025: nearly 90% of notable AI models in 2024 came from industry, up from 60% in 2023; the cost of using a GPT-3.5-level model fell over 280-fold between November 2022 and October 2024)
- Josh You, Venkat Somala, Epoch AI, "Introducing the AI Chip Owners Explorer" (6 April 2026: "over 70% of global AI compute (in terms of total computing power) is owned by the five US hyperscalers", Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle)
- UK Competition and Markets Authority, "CMA outlines growing concerns in markets for AI Foundation Models" (11 April 2024: an "interconnected web" of over 90 partnerships and strategic investments involving Google, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Nvidia; the risk that firms controlling key inputs such as compute, data and talent restrict access)
- UK Competition and Markets Authority, "Proposed principles to guide competitive AI markets and protect consumers" (18 September 2023: access, diversity, choice, flexibility, fair dealing, transparency and accountability)
- United Nations High-level Advisory Body on Artificial Intelligence, "Governing AI for Humanity" (September 2024: "accelerating development of AI concentrates power and wealth on a global scale"; seven countries take part in all the sampled AI governance efforts, 118 in none)
- United Nations, "Independent International Scientific Panel on AI" (set up by the General Assembly in August 2025, together with a Global Dialogue on AI Governance)
- United Nations, "Global Dialogue on AI Governance" (launched in New York in September 2025; its first full session was held in Geneva on 6 and 7 July 2026)
- OECD, "Competition in artificial intelligence infrastructure" (OECD Roundtables on Competition Policy Papers, No. 330, 14 November 2025: rapid innovation, but high concentration and barriers to entry at several levels of the supply chain)
- Yoshua Bengio (chair) et al., International AI Safety Report 2026 (3 February 2026: open-weight models "offer significant research and commercial benefits, particularly for lesser-resourced actors. However, they cannot be recalled once released, their safeguards are easier to remove, and actors can use them outside of monitored environments")
- European Commission, "AI Act: Have your say on trustworthy general-purpose AI" (2024: an open consultation that fed into the General-Purpose AI Code of Practice)
- European Commission, "Have your say" (the portal where anyone can comment on EU laws and policies being prepared)
Room 12 · Wing 4 · The Launch Pad
What can I do now?
You don't need to build an engine to drive well: you learn the rules of the road, check your mirrors and keep practising. With AI, that is AI literacy: check the facts, ask well, protect your data, stay curious and have a say. Since 2025, EU organisations that use AI must help their staff learn it.
Where the picture breaks
Real life has no countdown: these skills grow with practice, not in one go, and nobody has all of them perfectly. In the EU, the AI Act has asked organisations that use AI to build their staff's AI literacy since February 2025. An update in July 2026 softened the wording: they must support it, but no set level is required, and no certificate is needed. AI, its tools and its rules keep changing, which is why curiosity is the fuel.
Try it tomorrow
Pick one habit a week. Museum: agree a family code word a caller must know before anyone sends money. Engine Room: when a long chat wanders, start a new one with a short summary. AI Tower: ask "Where exactly does this come from?" and open the page yourself. Observatory: find where a surprising picture first appeared before you share it. And keep the fuel topped up with a free course, such as Elements of AI from the University of Helsinki.
Sources
- European Union, Regulation (EU) 2024/1689, the AI Act (Article 3(56): AI literacy means "skills, knowledge and understanding" to make an informed deployment of AI systems and "to gain awareness about the opportunities and risks of AI and possible harm it can cause"; Article 4 on AI literacy; Article 113: Chapters I and II apply from 2 February 2025)
- European Commission, "AI Literacy – Questions & Answers" (last updated 27 July 2026: after the Digital Omnibus on AI, providers and deployers must "take measures to support the development of AI literacy" of their staff, with no specific or "sufficient" level mandated; "There is no need for a certificate")
- European Parliament, Legislative Train, "Digital Omnibus on AI" (trilogue agreement 7 May 2026; Parliament's approval 16 June 2026; Council adoption 29 June 2026; signed 8 July 2026)
- European Union, Regulation (EU) 2026/1744, the Digital Omnibus on AI (Official Journal, July 2026; Article 1(5), new Article 4(1) of the AI Act: "This obligation does not require providers or deployers to guarantee any specific level of AI literacy of any individual")
- University of Helsinki and MinnaLearn, "Elements of AI" (a free online course; the introduction needs "no complicated math or programming"; over 2 million participants, accessed 25 September 2026)