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Executive Summary

Belgium’s transmission system operator Elia has proposed classifying data centres as a distinct offtaker category with fixed grid-capacity allocations in its forthcoming 2028–2038 grid plan. The move responds to a nine-fold surge in connection requests since 2022, with reserved capacity for 2034 already overshooting prior scenarios. The goal: prevent speculative projects from crowding out other sectors and protect system adequacy while AI-driven compute demand accelerates. Reuters

Across Europe, regulators are converging on a common playbook: (1) planning controls and siting limits for hyperscale builds (Netherlands), (2) connection moratoria or conditional access in constrained hubs (Ireland/Dublin), and (3) mandatory transparency and performance reporting under the EU’s revised Energy Efficiency Directive (EED), with a broader EU package foreshadowed for 2026. White & Case+8DataCenterDynamics+8Cloud Computing News+8

Global context matters. The IEA projects data-centre electricity use could double to ~945 TWh by 2030, with AI the principal driver; alternative pathways remain possible if efficiency and workload management improve. These trajectories amplify near-term grid bottlenecks, siting conflicts, and sustainability trade-offs. IEA+1

What this white paper delivers: a decision framework for policymakers, grid operators, and builders to operationalize capacity allocations for data centres; comparative lessons from EU jurisdictions; scenario impacts to 2030; and an implementation roadmap with KPIs.

1) Background and Problem Statement

  • Demand shock: Belgium’s grid has seen a step-change in connection requests from data-centre developers since 2022, tied to AI training/inference growth and adjacent cloud expansion. Elia proposes a separate category with capped allocations to manage scarcity and prioritize system needs. Reuters
  • European drift toward controls:
  • EU regulatory baseline: EED (EU/2023/1791) mandates data-centre reporting (>500 kW) and sets the stage for an EU-wide performance scheme; the Commission has trailed an expanded Data Centre Energy Efficiency Package in 2026. White & Case+3Covington & Burling+3eudca.org+3
  • Macro outlook: IEA and others anticipate rapid growth in data-centre electricity demand to 2030, with AI as the prime accelerator; ranges vary by scenario and assumptions on efficiency. IEA+24E Energy Efficient End-use Equipment+2

Implication: Absent explicit allocation and prioritization mechanisms, unconstrained queueing can cause grid lock-in, local congestion, stranded renewables, and crowding of industrial electrification.

2) Objectives for a Capacity-Allocation Regime

  1. System adequacy: safeguard peak capacity, reserve margins, and flexibility.
  2. Fairness across sectors: avoid crowd-out of households, industry, and transport electrification.
  3. Investment clarity: provide predictable, bankable signals for qualifying data-centre builds.
  4. Sustainability: align with EED reporting and national decarbonization targets. Reuters+1

3) Options for Managing Grid Access

3.1 Firm vs. Flexible Connections

  • Firm capacity: unconditional access up to a contracted ceiling; higher network charges and stricter siting tests.
  • Flexible/interruptible: curtailed at predefined congestion thresholds or price signals; reduced tariffs or priority in queues for load-shifting capability. (Elia explicitly references continued use of flexible connections.) Reuters

3.2 Fixed Sectoral Caps

  • Static cap: e.g., X% of zone capacity to data centres, reviewed biennially.
  • Dynamic cap: varies with renewable buildout, storage additions, and realized load factors.

3.3 Congestion-Linked Siting

  • Use nodal/zone heatmaps to channel builds toward surplus nodes and renewable-rich regions; mirror Dutch approach of geographically bounded hyperscale siting. Cloud Computing News

3.4 Performance-Conditioned Access

  • Tie allocations to PUE/WUE, waste-heat recovery, onsite storage, and demand response commitments; integrate EED disclosures into connection agreements. Covington & Burling+1

3.5 “Bring-Your-Own-Flex” (BYOF)

  • Preference/credits for projects adding dedicated renewables, grid-scale storage, behind-the-meter flexibility, or dispatchable low-carbon capacity that is grid-available (not just self-consumed).

4) Comparative Insights (EU)

  • Ireland: A rapid pivot to moratoria/conditional access illustrates the consequences of hub over-concentration and the value of early congestion signals. Mason Hayes Curran+1
  • Netherlands: National-provincial coordination to steer site geography and limit oversized projects; shows political feasibility of tight siting rules when paired with clear exceptions. DataCenterDynamics+1
  • EU level: Mandatory reporting via EED creates a baseline of comparable data; a 2026 package is set to push toward carbon-neutral data centres by 2030 and harmonized metrics. Covington & Burling+2eudca.org+2

5) Scenario Analysis (to 2030)

We outline three planning scenarios for Belgium and peers:

  1. High-AI Acceleration: Aligns with IEA central (~945 TWh global). Tight domestic caps, aggressive flexible connections, and siting to surplus nodes are essential to avoid industrial crowd-out. Risk: stranded speculative reservations; Mitigation: “use-it-or-lose-it” milestones. IEA
  2. Managed Growth: Efficiency gains, liquid cooling, workload shifting, and DR/storage adoption flatten peak impacts. Moderate caps with performance-conditioned access suffice. Uptime Institute+1
  3. Headwinds Case: Trade/ supply-chain friction slows AI buildout (IEA “headwind” sentiment). Opportunity to recalibrate caps upward for industrial electrification if capacity is under-utilized. Reuters

Cross-cutting: Public acceptance risk is binding in Europe; transparent criteria and visible community benefits (district heat, local hiring, biodiversity net gain) are material in permitting outcomes. techreg.org

6) Recommended Policy & Market Design

6.1 Set a National/TSO Framework

  • Create a “Data Centre” offtaker class with zonal caps linked to resource adequacy plans; publish annual cap trajectories with 3-year visibility. (Aligns with Elia’s proposal.) Reuters
  • Instituted milestones & clawbacks: reservation deposits; use-it-or-lose-it triggers at 12/24/36 months for land, permits, grid code tests.

6.2 Tie Access to System Value

  • Require at least two of: (a) waste-heat recovery to municipal networks, (b) grid-available storage sized to ≥20–30% of peak draw, (c) documented load-flex (sheddability) ≥10–15% at scarcity signals, (d) renewables PPAs with deliverability to the same node/zone.
  • Offer tariff credits for verifiable flexibility; higher locational tariffs in congested nodes.

6.3 Harmonize with EU Instruments

  • Integrate EED Annex VII reporting directly into connection/operations licences; adopt the EU’s upcoming performance scheme once formalized. Covington & Burling+2eudca.org+2

6.4 Planning and Markets

  • Expand zonal hosting-capacity maps with forward curves for firm and flex availability; publish quarterly queue dashboards.
  • Enable curtailment-indexed contracts and capacity auctions for flexible data-centre load, letting operators monetize demand response.

7) Implementation Roadmap (Belgium-centric but portable)

Phase 0 (0–3 months):

  • Publish proposed zonal caps and criteria; open consultation with industry, cities, and DSOs.
  • Release queue transparency: connection timeline SLAs; milestone definitions.

Phase 1 (3–12 months):

  • Finalize allocation rules (caps, milestones, performance conditions).
  • Launch pilot auctions for flexible load commitments in two constrained zones.
  • Establish waste-heat registry and municipal matchmaking.

Phase 2 (Year 2–3):

  • Shift new connections in red zones to flex-first by default.
  • Deploy locational tariffs and curtailment-indexed products.
  • First cap review using realized load and storage additions.

Phase 3 (Year 3+):

  • Align with the EU 2026 package; uplift performance thresholds; scale heat networks in host communities. Reuters+1

8) Governance & KPIs

  • Adequacy KPIs: peak margin (MW), annual hours under scarcity price, curtailment hours avoided.
  • Queue Health: % projects meeting milestones; average time-to-energization by zone.
  • System Value: MW of dispatchable flexibility contracted; MWh of waste-heat delivered.
  • Sustainability: PUE/WUE distributions; grid-available storage MW; share of zonal renewable matching (hourly/quarterly).
  • Fairness: share of new capacity awarded to SMEs vs hyperscale; community benefits metric (e.g., € per MVA to local infrastructure).

9) Risk Register & Mitigations

  • Speculative reservations: Reservation bonds + staged milestones.
  • Over-tight caps amid efficiency gains: Biennial cap reviews; “headroom release” mechanism.
  • Under-delivery of promised flexibility: Performance bonds; pay-for-performance DR contracts.
  • Local opposition: Early co-design of heat reuse, biodiversity, and traffic plans; public dashboards. techreg.org
  • Technology uncertainty (AI workloads): Encourage modular power blocks, liquid-cooling readiness, and medium-voltage distribution designs adaptable to densification. Uptime Institute

10) What Builders and Investors Should Do Now

  1. Target surplus nodes and align with municipal heat grids to earn allocation priority.
  2. Engineer for flex: integrate storage and automated load-shedding tied to scarcity prices.
  3. Prove system value: publish EED-aligned metrics; validate hourly renewable matching; document heat-reuse partners. Covington & Burling+1
  4. Portfolio hedging: diversify across jurisdictions with clearer siting pathways (e.g., designated Dutch zones) and away from moratorium hubs. Cloud Computing News+1

Appendix: Key References

Bottom line

Elia’s proposal is consistent with the direction of travel in Europe: treat AI-era data centres as a distinct, managed offtaker class with caps, performance conditions, and flexibility obligations—not as passive load. Jurisdictions that move first on transparent allocation, siting logic, and market-based flexibility will make room for AI growth without sacrificing grid reliability, decarbonization, or industrial competitiveness.

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