By Thorsten Meyer | October 29, 2026 | ThorstenMeyerAI.com
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A 32-gigabyte DDR5-6000 memory kit, a standard upgrade for a gaming PC, costs at least $447 in the United States today. The lowest price Tom’s Hardware ever recorded for that kind of kit was $72 (price index, updated October 26). That is more than six times as much, for the same few chips on a small green board.
On Wednesday, the company that makes much of the world’s memory said this will not end soon. SK hynix expects demand for memory to exceed supply “through 2030”, and its finance chief said on the call that fewer PCs and phones will be sold as a result. A day later, Samsung reported that its phone and network business lost money while its memory business set a record. The AI boom is no longer only a story about data centers and share prices. You can now feel it in what a phone, a laptop or a memory stick costs.
Key takeaways
- The forecast: SK hynix expects demand to exceed supply “through 2030” because new factories take years and cutting-edge processes are hard (SK hynix, October 28). That is the company’s own forecast. Samsung says tight supply will last “into 2028”; Micron says it has no “line of sight” to balance.
- The cause: AI data centers buy high-bandwidth memory (HBM), stacked memory that sits next to AI chips. It is made on the same silicon wafers as the memory in your phone and laptop, and by my arithmetic from TrendForce estimates it needs roughly three times as much wafer per gigabit.
- The price chain: contract prices for ordinary memory chips rose 93 to 98% in the first quarter of 2026 alone, and kept rising every quarter since (TrendForce). Chained together, that is roughly four times the price at the end of 2025 (my arithmetic, partly from forecasts).
- The shopping basket: PC shipments fell 20.1% and smartphone shipments fell 22.0% in the third quarter, the steepest quarterly smartphone drop IDC has ever measured. IDC expects the average smartphone to cost $581 this year, up 27.6%.
- The specs: to hold prices, makers cut storage, cameras and memory sizes in mainstream models, and some phone makers reuse recycled memory chips (TrendForce, Counterpoint).
- The honest part: the companies forecasting a long shortage are earning record margins from it. A big customer, Acer, accuses the suppliers of talking up the shortage to protect their margins. Both sides have an interest. Not investment advice.
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What SK hynix actually said
SK hynix, the South Korean maker of memory chips, reported its third quarter on October 28. I covered the record numbers in How Healthy Is the AI Boom?: revenue of 104.6 trillion won and an operating margin of 80%. Here, the interesting part is the outlook.
In its official release, the company writes that supply “is not keeping pace with the growth of the market”. Given the “technical difficulty of leading-edge processes and the long lead time required to build new production facilities, it expects the structure in which demand exceeds supply to persist through 2030” (release).
The release does not mention PCs or phones. That came on the earnings call. Chief Financial Officer Kim Woo-Hyun said, in the interpreted transcript: “While shipment volumes for PCs and mobile devices are expected to decrease due to cost burdens from rising memory prices and supply shortages, AI infrastructure demand growth is expected to more than offset this decline.”
Three further details from the call explain why the company is so confident:
- Customers want more than double. For HBM, “customers’ volume requirement is more than double that of what we can supply today”, an executive said.
- Half of the next two years is already sold. Long-term agreements with 14 major customers, usually five years long, cover more than half of SK hynix’s production capacity for 2027 and 2028. The contracts include deposits, so buyers cannot simply walk away.
- Even demand is capped by supply. “Achievable” demand growth for 2027, given what can actually be produced, is mid-20% for DRAM and high-teen percent for NAND flash, similar to this year.
HBM versus normal memory, in plain words
Two kinds of memory matter here. DRAM is working memory: it holds whatever your device is doing right now and forgets it when the power goes off. NAND flash is storage: your photos, apps and files, kept even when the device is off.
Ordinary DRAM comes as memory sticks for PCs and servers (DDR5) or as chips soldered into phones and thin laptops (LPDDR). High-bandwidth memory (HBM) is DRAM too, but built differently. Eight, twelve or more DRAM chips are stacked on top of each other, connected by thousands of tiny vertical wires, and placed right next to an AI processor. The result moves data far faster than a memory stick can. Every large AI chip from Nvidia, Google or AMD needs several of these stacks.
Here is the catch. HBM and the memory in your laptop come out of the same factories, from the same silicon wafers. And HBM eats wafers.
Think of a bakery with a fixed number of ovens. It can bake bread or tall wedding cakes. A wedding cake takes far more oven time per slice, but the wedding customers pay much more and order years ahead. A sensible baker shifts the ovens to cakes. The bread does not disappear, but it gets scarce and expensive.
TrendForce, a Taiwanese market research firm, puts numbers on the ovens (June 2). By the end of 2026, HBM will take about 22% of the wafers that the three biggest makers start, but deliver only about 9% of the memory bits. By the end of 2027: about 30% of the wafers for about 13% of the bits. By my arithmetic, that means a gigabit of HBM needs roughly three times as much wafer as a gigabit of ordinary DRAM.
Samsung’s memory executive Jaejune Kim described the same effect on his company’s call. As newer HBM generations get bigger and more complex, “amid the growing shift in bit production from conventional DRAM to HBM, I think this will act as a physical constraint on supply. It will be inevitable” (transcript, October 29).
Why the factories cannot simply build more
If memory is so profitable, why not build more factories? They are building. It just takes years, and new money does not turn into chips quickly.
- Clean rooms are the bottleneck. Micron’s chief operating officer Manish Bhatia called clean room space “the principal constraint in the industry”. Most of Micron’s extra construction spending is for clean rooms that come online “in late ’28 and beyond” (post-earnings call, September 30).
- More spending is not more output. Samsung said much of its higher 2027 capital spending will go into buying space, higher construction costs and pricier equipment, and is “unlikely to result in a meaningful boost to bit production in 2028” (Samsung call, October 29).
- The makers build cautiously on purpose. SK hynix says it will build the shells of new fabs but open the clean rooms in phases, “in line with demand”. Memory makers remember what happened after the last boom, and so should we (see Honest limits).
So the three biggest suppliers give three horizons. SK hynix: demand above supply “through 2030”. Samsung: tight supply “into 2028”, based on market research. Micron: in calendar 2027 and 2028 “we see demand exceeding supply”, and “we do not have line of sight to when supply and demand will return to balance”, as CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said on September 30 (The Register).
Infographic 01 · Where the memory goes
AI data centers get first call on memory.
High-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI chips and the memory in your phone come out of the same factories. HBM needs far more wafer per gigabit, and its buyers sign years ahead.
The bakery problem
HBM share of wafers vs. share of the memory bits they produce
Same factories, same wafers: every wafer used for AI memory is missing from phone and PC memory.
Who gets first call
Long contracts lock up supply years ahead
- SK hynix: deals with 14 major customers, usually five years, with deposits; more than 50% of 2027–2028 capacity
- Micron: more than 75% of fiscal 2027 shipments already committed
- HBM demand: customers want “more than double” what SK hynix can supply today
- Cloud budgets: memory ≈ 47% of big cloud providers’ capex in 2026, 68% in 2027 (TrendForce estimates)
Three makers, three horizons, one customer’s view
- SK hynixThrough 2030Demand above supply (company forecast)
- SamsungInto 2028Tight supply, based on market research
- MicronNo “line of sight”Tighter in 2027 and 2028 than in 2026
- Acer (customer)Easing from 2H 2027Says suppliers talk up the shortage
HBM is a wedding cake, phone memory is bread. Same ovens. The cake customers pay more and order years ahead.Thorsten Meyer · my analogy
Sources: TrendForce, 2 Jun (wafer and bit shares, estimates); TrendForce, 25 Aug (capex shares, estimates); SK hynix, 28 Oct 2026; SK hynix call, 28 Oct; Micron call, 30 Sep; The Register, 1 Oct; Samsung call, 29 Oct; Acer via Tom's Hardware / DigiTimes. Wafer-per-gigabit ratio: my arithmetic. All horizons are forecasts.
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How the AI boom reaches your shopping basket
The prices you see in a shop start as contract prices: what PC and phone makers pay memory makers each quarter. TrendForce tracks these for ordinary DRAM. The increases from one quarter to the next:
- First quarter 2026: up about 93 to 98% (measured, June 1)
- Second quarter: up 58 to 63% (forecast, March 31, kept on June 1)
- Third quarter: up 13 to 18% (forecast, July 3)
- Fourth quarter: up 10 to 15% (forecast, September 30)
The increases are slowing, but they are still increases on top of increases. Chained together, the four quarters come to roughly 3.8 to 4.4 times the price at the end of 2025. That is my arithmetic, three of the four steps are forecasts, and contract prices are not shop prices. But it explains the numbers that come next.
Fewer devices sold. Worldwide PC shipments fell 20.1% to 62.7 million in the third quarter (IDC, October 8). Smartphone shipments fell 22.0% to 255.3 million, the largest drop IDC has recorded for any quarter (IDC, October 14). Counterpoint, another research firm, measured similar drops: 21% for PCs and 20% for smartphones.
Higher prices. IDC expects the average smartphone to sell for $581 in 2026, up 27.6% in a single year (August 26). Counterpoint says smartphone retail prices have risen about 20% so far this year (October 12), with the biggest increases in price-sensitive markets such as India. For PCs, IDC forecast a 17% rise in average selling prices for 2026 and expects no relief from the memory shortage before the end of 2027 (June 2).
The cheapest devices disappear first. IDC says the 173 million smartphones that sold for under $100 last year face “an existential crisis”: makers of cheap Android phones are cutting those models. “The era of the cheap smartphone has ended,” said IDC’s Francisco Jeronimo.
Specs quietly shrink. For a mainstream notebook with a $900 list price, the processor, memory and SSD made up about 68% of the bill of materials in the third quarter (TrendForce, October 8). Makers respond by cutting what you get. TrendForce reports that PC brands are reducing SSD sizes in mainstream models. Counterpoint lists lower storage, simpler cameras and the return of 4G models in some smartphone segments (September 3), and says phone makers are turning to recycled memory chips (October tracker, summary page).
People keep their devices longer. “As higher prices reach the shelf, many buyers are keeping their current devices longer,” said IDC’s Jeronimo. Counterpoint sees more people buying refurbished phones and choosing models with less storage.
Infographic 02 · From the fab to your shopping basket
How a chip shortage turns into a pricier phone.
Memory makers raise contract prices, device makers pass them on or trim specs, and fewer devices sell. The cheapest models disappear first.
Contract prices, quarter on quarter
What PC and phone makers pay for ordinary DRAM (TrendForce)
Slower increases, but increases on top of increases.
Third quarter 2026 shipments
Year on year · IDC, preliminary
Counterpoint: smartphones −20%, PCs −21%. IDC: the largest quarterly smartphone drop it has recorded.
Prices up
- Smartphone retail prices about +20% so far in 2026 (Counterpoint)
- PC average selling prices +17% in 2026 (IDC forecast, June)
- Sub-$100 phones: “an existential crisis” (IDC)
Specs trimmed
- Smaller SSDs in mainstream notebooks (TrendForce)
- Less storage, simpler cameras, 4G models back (Counterpoint)
- Recycled memory chips in some phones (Counterpoint)
Buyers adapt
- Keeping devices longer (IDC)
- Refurbished and lower-storage models (Counterpoint)
- Waiting for sales events (Counterpoint)
“The demand for AI server memory has surged, leading to a shortage of mobile memory since the fourth quarter of last year, and prices have continued into the third quarter and impacted our profitability.”Samsung’s phone division, Q3 2026 earnings call · its chip division earned 106.5 trillion won in the same quarter
Sources: TrendForce 1 Jun, 3 Jul, 30 Sep (1Q measured, 2Q–4Q forecasts); Tom's Hardware price index, 26 Oct; IDC, 26 Aug; IDC, 2 Jun; TrendForce, 8 Oct; IDC, 8 Oct; IDC, 14 Oct; Counterpoint, 3 Sep; Counterpoint, Oct tracker summary; Samsung, 29 Oct 2026; Samsung call, 29 Oct. “≈4×”: my arithmetic, chaining the four ranges.
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The twist: Samsung’s phones pay Samsung’s chips
Samsung makes both: memory chips and Galaxy phones. Its results on October 29 show the shortage from both sides of one company (Samsung).
- The chip division earned an operating profit of 106.5 trillion won in the quarter, with record memory results.
- The phone and network businesses posted an operating loss of 0.6 trillion won. Samsung’s release cites “cost pressures”.
On the call, the phone division was blunt: the surge in AI server memory demand led “to a shortage of mobile memory since the fourth quarter of last year, and prices have continued into the third quarter and impacted our profitability.” It expects “heightened raw material prices to persist into 2027” and fewer phones sold, but at higher prices. The memory business put the outlook in one line of the release: in 2027, “increasing AI-driven demand will far exceed the industry supply in comparison with 2026.”
A memory maker’s own phone business pays the same higher prices as everyone else. Every phone maker is in that position, and most have no memory profits to make up for it.
What this means for companies
The shortage changes three budgets at once: devices, servers and cloud. My reading of what to do, based on the data above:
- Budget for higher device prices through 2027. IDC expects PC prices to stay well above last year’s level, and does not expect relief before the end of 2027. Plan refresh budgets with a higher price per device, or plan longer lifetimes. Do not build next year’s plan on a price drop.
- Buy what you need now rather than wait. IDC says retailers may run promotions to clear stock, but “we don’t expect pricing anywhere near what it was a year ago”. TrendForce reports that PC makers keep buying memory aggressively because they expect 2027 to be tight, and that PC memory supply could even shrink next year. If a refresh is due, lock quotes and delivery dates now.
- Pick the memory size once, carefully. In most business laptops memory is soldered and cannot be upgraded later. A machine bought with too little memory to save money will age faster, especially as more software runs AI features locally. Fewer, better-equipped devices can be cheaper over five years than many minimal ones.
- Stretch the fleet you have. New batteries, SSD swaps where possible, and certified refurbished devices for roles that do not need new hardware.
- Check the memory line in server quotes. TrendForce expects server DRAM contract prices to rise about 270% over 2026 and estimates that memory will make up 47% of the big cloud providers’ capital spending this year and 68% in 2027 (August 25; estimates). For on-premises servers bought now, memory is no longer a side item. Ask for configurations with less but sufficient memory, and get quotes early.
- Cloud is not a way around it. Cloud providers signed long-term memory contracts, but they pass costs on. Microsoft’s finance chief said this week that its spending included “higher memory and storage costs” (my earnings analysis). Compare cloud and on-premises on total cost per workload, not on list prices. For the on-premises side of that decision, see IBM’s CEO Says Run AI Yourself.
- If you build data centers, treat memory like power. Memory and electricity are now both allocated, not simply bought. SK hynix’s contracts include deposits; capacity goes to customers who commit years ahead. The power side of the same story is in The AI Race Now Runs on Electricians.
What this means for users
- If you need a new device, buy it now, ideally during holiday sales. IDC’s Kiranjeet Kaur says consumers who cannot put off a purchase “are likely best served by holiday-quarter offers” rather than waiting for prices to ease. A promotion this winter is more likely than a broad price drop next year.
- If you do not need one, keep what you have. A new battery and a cleanup of storage can add years to a phone or laptop. Waiting is fine if your device still works; just do not wait for 2025 prices to come back.
- Buy enough memory once. In phones and most laptops, memory cannot be added later. Do not let a lower price talk you into a version with less memory than you need, and compare a new model’s specs with its predecessor: storage, camera and memory have been trimmed in some 2026 models.
- Be smart about storage. TrendForce expects NAND flash supply to ease in the second half of 2027. Until then, cloud storage or an external drive can stand in for a bigger, pricier built-in drive.
- Look at refurbished devices. Buy from sellers that offer a warranty and show battery health. A refurbished flagship from last year often beats a new budget phone with trimmed specs.
- PC builders: do not panic-buy memory. Prices swing daily and short sales do happen. If your PC works, upgrade the parts that are not memory first.
- This is not investment advice. Memory company shares already price in much of this, and they can fall fast, as the next section shows.
Honest limits
- “Through 2030” is a forecast by the company that profits from it. SK hynix earned an 80% operating margin last quarter. Telling customers that supply stays short for years also helps it sign long contracts with deposits. Samsung (“into 2028”) and Micron (“no line of sight”) are less specific, and they disagree on the horizon.
- Customers say the opposite, and they also have an interest. Acer’s chairman Jason Chen says the big suppliers want to keep margins high for longer, “so they keep putting out the message: let me tell you, prices won’t come down until the year 20-whatever.” He expects PC prices to rise another 5 to 20% toward year-end, flatten in the first half of 2027 and then fall as more Chinese memory capacity arrives (Tom’s Hardware, citing DigiTimes, September). A PC maker wants cheaper memory, just as a memory maker wants scarce memory.
- Memory is the most cyclical business in tech. In the first quarter of 2023, SK hynix reported an operating margin of minus 67% after a demand slump (SK hynix). Three and a half years later it is plus 80%. Every previous memory boom has ended in a glut. This one may last longer because AI demand is broader, but nobody has proven that.
- Forecasts move fast. IDC cut its 2026 smartphone forecast from minus 13.9% to minus 16.7% in a single quarter. Read every number here as the best estimate on its date.
- The demand side can change too. SK hynix itself stopped reviewing a stock listing of its US storage unit Solidigm, citing market volatility and “a correction in semiconductor stocks”. If AI spending slows, the shortage could ease much sooner than 2030.
- Part of the drop is a hangover. IDC says PC makers and retailers bought heavily in the first half of the year to get ahead of price increases. That inflated earlier quarters and makes the third-quarter fall look bigger.
- There is a lawsuit, with allegations only. A US class action filed in June claims that Samsung, SK hynix and Micron coordinated to restrict ordinary DRAM supply. These are allegations; Micron denies them, and a similar case was dismissed in 2020 (Tom’s Hardware).
- Sources and transcripts. Call quotes come from third-party transcripts (interpreted for the Korean companies) and The Register for Micron’s CEO. The Counterpoint memory tracker is paywalled; I used only its public summary. Shop prices are US prices from one tracker.
The takeaway
For two years, the AI boom was something you read about. Now it is something you pay for, one memory chip at a time. The memory makers say it lasts years; their customers say it ends in 2027. My reading: plan for expensive memory through 2027, treat 2030 as a sales pitch until the factories prove it, and make every device you buy count, because the next one will cost more.
Infographic 03 · What to do now
Plan for expensive memory through 2027.
Prices may dip in a promotion, but nobody who makes or buys memory at scale expects 2025 prices back soon. Make every device count.
For companies
- Budget for higher device prices through 2027; no relief expected before the end of 2027 (IDC)
- If a refresh is due, lock quotes and delivery dates now
- Choose memory size once: in most laptops it is soldered
- Stretch the fleet: batteries, SSD swaps, certified refurbished
- Check the memory line in every server quote; ask for leaner configurations
- Compare cloud and on-premises per workload: cloud passes memory costs on too
For you
- Need a device? Buy now, ideally in holiday sales (IDC)
- Don’t need one? Keep it: a new battery adds years
- Buy enough memory once; it can’t be added in most phones and laptops
- Compare specs with last year’s model: storage and cameras were trimmed in some
- Refurbished with warranty and battery health shown
- PC builders: don’t panic-buy memory; prices swing daily
- Q4 2026Contract prices +10–15%TrendForce forecast · holiday promotions possible (IDC)
- 1H 2027PC prices flatten, says AcerA customer’s forecast
- 2H 2027Storage (NAND) supply may easeTrendForce · DRAM stays tight
- End 2027No relief before thenIDC on PC memory
- Late 2028Micron’s new clean rooms come onlineMicron call, 30 Sep
- 2028 · 2030Samsung: tight “into 2028” · SK hynix: “through 2030”Company forecasts
Not investment advice. Advice lists are my reading of the sourced data in the article.
Sources: IDC, 8 Oct; IDC, 14 Oct; TrendForce 1 Jun, 3 Jul, 30 Sep; TrendForce, 8 Oct; Acer via Tom's Hardware / DigiTimes; Micron call, 30 Sep; Samsung call, 29 Oct; SK hynix, 28 Oct 2026. Timeline entries are forecasts by the named source.
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Related on Thorsten Meyer AI
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Sources
- SK hynix, 3Q26 financial results (October 28, 2026), preliminary and unaudited
- SK hynix, Q3 2026 earnings call, CFO Kim Woo-Hyun and executives, interpreted transcript via The Motley Fool (October 28, 2026)
- Samsung Electronics, Third quarter 2026 results (October 29, 2026)
- Samsung Electronics, Q3 2026 earnings call, Jaejune Kim (Memory) and MX division, transcript via Yahoo Finance (October 29, 2026)
- Micron, fiscal Q4 2026 post-earnings analyst call, Manish Bhatia, transcript via The Motley Fool (September 30, 2026); CEO quotes as reported by The Register (October 1, 2026)
- TrendForce: 1Q26 DRAM revenue and 2Q26 prices (June 1), HBM wafer share (June 2), 3Q26 prices (July 3), memory share of cloud capex (August 25), 4Q26 prices (September 30), notebooks in 2027 (October 8), all 2026
- IDC: PC shipments Q3 2026 (October 8), smartphone shipments Q3 2026 (October 14), smartphone forecast 2026 (August 26), PC forecast 2026 (June 2)
- Counterpoint Research: smartphone prices in 2026 (September 3), smartphone shipments Q3 2026 (October 12), PC shipments Q3 2026 (October 22), memory price tracker, October 2026 (summary)
- Tom’s Hardware, RAM price index (updated October 26, 2026); Acer CEO on memory prices (September 2026, citing DigiTimes); DRAM price-fixing lawsuit (June 2026)
- SK hynix, first quarter 2023 results (April 2023)
